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This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Singapore Jobs - Work From Home forums, part of the Singapore Jobs Market - Jobs in Singapore | Singapore Free Job Posting/Advertisement category; Pound: we only dream of peace Political risks throw the British pound into the heat, then in the cold. The ...


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  #1041  
Old 04-09-2018, 12:31 PM
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Pound: we only dream of peace

Political risks throw the British pound into the heat, then in the cold. The statement of the chief negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier that Brussels is ready to offer London an unprecedented deal, allowed quotes of the GBP/USD to soar above the psychologically important mark of 1.3. Alas, a few hours later Barnier declared a categorical disagreement with Theresa May's plan. At the same time, former Brexit Secretary David Davis said that he would vote against the Prime Minister's program, which involves significantly worse conditions than there were.

Theresa May will have a daunting task - first to find a compromise within the country, and then to reach an agreement with the EU. The situation is aggravated by the Congress of the Conservative party in September. And if in June the prime minister managed to maintain her leadership, now she will have to undergo a new test. As a result of the aggravation of political risks, the volatility of the sterling may come out of the trading range and go up, which will negatively affect the positions of the bulls on the GBP/USD. Britain has the highest ratio of the negative current account to GDP in the G20 countries, its financing requires an inflow of investments, and it is difficult to lure non-residents to the local market in conditions of increased volatility of the pound.

The dynamics of the volatility of the pound


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The pressure on sterling is exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in August was marked by the worst dynamics in the last two years. Export orders fell below the critical level of 50 for the first time since April 2016. As Bloomberg research shows, British companies preferred to save money instead of taking advantage of the devaluation and increase investment. Now, in the face of fears about the slowdown of the world economy, the decline in external demand creates serious problems for them.

It should be recognized that the fall of the GBP/USD contributed to the gradual recovery of the US dollar. Difficulties in negotiations between the United States and Canada lead investors to the idea that the settlement of the dispute between Washington and Beijing may take even longer, and the truce between the US and the EU will end very soon. As a result, the risks of escalation of trade conflicts have increased, which provides support to the US dollar.

The pound will have a rather difficult week, because after the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector, the indices of purchasing managers in the construction sector and in the service sector will be published. The last indicator is very important, as the non-production sector accounts for around 80% of British GDP. Add to this the continuing political risks, and it will become clear that the purchase of sterling should be treated very carefully. The aggravation of tensions between the EU and the UK and Theresa May's problems with retaining leadership in the Conservative party and with the vote in Parliament will become a catalyst for GBP/USD sales.

Technically, a breakthrough of support at 1,2835 and 1,2775 will increase the risks of implementing the target by 88.6% and 113% for the "Shark" pattern.

GBP/USD daily chart


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  #1042  
Old 05-09-2018, 01:19 PM
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Brent inspired by hurricanes

While investors are pondering whether OPEC and Russia will be able to compensate for the decline in Iranian exports, the approach of hurricane Gordon to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico allowed the "bulls" of Brent at arm's length to approach the psychologically important mark of $80 per barrel. The share of this territory accounts for about 17% of production and 45% of processing of all American oil, where it does not get agitated and start curtailing production? However, the impact of hurricanes on pricing in the oil market is often temporary. If a natural disaster is not as devastating as originally anticipated, buyers can begin to lock in profits.

According to information gathered with the help of tankers, oil exports from Iran declined by 14% in August. Competent Wall Street Journal sources inside the country report a decrease from 2.3 million b/d in June to 1.5 million b/d in September. Deliveries of oil from the largest OPEC producer are falling by leaps and bounds, and in fact even before the entry into force of US sanctions in early November is still far. Exports to Europe fell by 45% in July, to South Korea-by 40%, India is considering a 50% reduction in purchases, although along with China and Turkey will continue to receive oil from Tehran. The hole should close the cartel, and Bloomberg experts expect production growth to 420 thousand b/d in August, to 32.74 million b/d. If the actual figure is smaller, "bulls" in Brent and WTI will continue their attacks.

Dynamics of oil production by OPEC


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Despite the fact that Nigeria has tried to rein in speculators, saying that its efforts and the efforts of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Angola are sufficient enough to compensate for the reduction of Iranian exports, the big banks are reviewing their forecasts upwards. Thus, Barclays believes that the North sea variety under the influence of US sanctions and the decline in production in several producing countries may exceed $80 per barrel in the short term. The average price forecast for 2020 was raised from $55 to $75 per barrel. BNP Paribas doubts that the decline in supplies from Iran, the occasional interruptions in Libya and the decline in production in Venezuela will be offset by an increase in OPEC production. The bank expects to see Brent averaging at $79 per barrel in 2019.

Favorable market conditions can easily be taken advantage of by American manufacturers. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the volume of production in the United States increased from May to June by 230 b/d and at any time could touch on the psychologically important level of 11 million b/d. Alas, the market still ignores this as a "bearish" driver for Brent and WTI, preferring to win back the factors of the hurricane and American sanctions against Iran.

Technically, on the daily chart, Brent achieved a target of 88.6% on the "Shark" pattern, which increases the probability of rollback in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave. If the bulls manage to update the September peak and gain a foothold above it, the risks of continuing the upward campaign to the target will increase by 113%.

Brent, daily chart


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  #1043  
Old 06-09-2018, 12:40 PM
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Gold wings have been clipped

August turned out to be the fifth consecutive month of gold closing in the red zone. The precious metal lost more than 2% amid the acceleration of the US economy, increasing the chances of four acts of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve in 2018 and tensions over trade wars. And only moderately - "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell in Jackson hole allowed the "bulls" to lick some of its wounds and try to break above $1210 per ounce. Alas, the joy of buyers was short-lived. In early September, the dollar began to recover in the face of problems in the negotiations between the United States and Canada and Donald Trump's intentions to expand the size of import duties against China by $200 billion.

The dynamics of gold


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According to Citigroup Global Markets, investors do not need the gold in a world where stocks and bond yields are rising. The precious metal does not bring dividends and interest as equity and debt securities, and its status as a safe-haven asset has been taken away by the US dollar. As a result, speculators are increasing net short positions on the precious metal for the fifth week in a row and brought them to record highs. The stocks of the largest specialized fund SPDR Gold Shares fell to its lowest levels since November. From the levels of April highs, the index has lost 14%.

However, everything in this world is relative. Silver feels much worse than gold, the loss of which is about 16% since the beginning of the year. Due to the high proportion of industrial use in aggregate demand, this metal is more vulnerable to a slowdown in the global economy than the sector leader. As a result, their ratio has soared to the highest levels since the global financial crisis.

Dynamics of the ratio of gold and silver


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Further dynamics of the XAU/USD will entirely depend on the US dollar, whose position looks strong. First, the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicts that US GDP in the third quarter will accelerate to 4.6%. Secondly, the futures market estimates the probability of four Federal funds rate increases in 2018 at 75%. A month ago, the figure was only slightly higher than 60%. Third, Trump is about to expand the size of import tariffs against China, which will increase the risks of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and put pressure on the markets of developing countries.

What can save gold from the sixth consecutive month of closing in the red zone? Correction in the US stock market, verbal intervention of Donald Trump, the deterioration of macroeconomic statistics in the United States and, finally, a breakthrough in the relationship between Washington and Beijing. So far, three of the four above events seem unlikely, and the rhetoric of the US president tends to put pressure on the dollar only in the short term. In this regard, sales of the XAU/USD on growth remain valid.

Technically, the inability of the bulls to hold gold prices above $1209 per ounce indicates their weakness. The initiative moved to the "bears", which broke through the lower border of the short-term upward trading channel and intend to restore the downward trend.

Gold, daily chart


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  #1044  
Old 07-09-2018, 02:11 PM
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EUR/JPY Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce


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EUR/JPY is approaching its support at 127.94 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where the price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 129.69 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

EUR/JPY is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 127.94. Stop loss at 127.01. Take profit at 129.69.



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  #1045  
Old 10-09-2018, 01:44 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 10, 2018


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We continue to look for more upside pressure towards the next sub-target at 1.7820. Longer term resistance at 1.7820 only should prove to be a temporary cap as more upside towards strong resistance at 1.8369 remains expected.

Support is now seen at 1.7683 and again at 1.7638 only a break below the later, we confirm more sideways consolidation, and a dip to 1.7605 before the next strong push higher.

R3: 1.7820
R2: 1.7750
R1: 1.7734
Pivot: 1,7701
S1: 1.7683
S2: 1.7638
S3: 1.7605

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 with our stop placed at 1.7565, Upon a break above 1.7734 we will move our stop higher to 1.7595.


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  #1046  
Old 11-09-2018, 01:16 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 11, 2018


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EUR/NZD keeps making headway towards the sub-target at 1.7820. Ideally, this resistance will only make a temporary top for the next swing higher towards the more important resistance at 1.8369.

Support is now seen at 1.7668 and if a break below here is seen, then a corrective decline closer to support at 1.7605 could be seen, but it should be short-lived as the steady uptrend continues higher towards 1.8369. R3: 1.8016

R2: 1.7919
R1: 1.7820
Pivot: 1.7738
S1: 1.7701
S2: 1.7668
S3: 1.7605

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7660.


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  #1047  
Old 12-09-2018, 12:42 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 12, 2018


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The 1.7820 targets have now been tested. The question is whether this was the top of red wave iii and a correction in red wave iv is needed now? We have seen a quite massive negative divergence being build in the run higher to 1.7820, so it should come as no surprise if a minor correction in red wave iv is about to begin. A break below 1.7738 will indicate this is the case.

That said, the rally to 1.7820 only represents the minimum extension target of red wave i. Therefore, we have to be equally ready for this extension to continue towards the next extension targets at 1.7954 (the 200% extension of red wave i) or even higher to the 261.8% extension target of red wave i at 1.8184.
R3: 1.7954
R2: 1.7900
R1: 1.7825 Pivot: 1.7738
S1: 1.7678
S2: 1.7629
S3: 1.7590

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7730.


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  #1048  
Old 13-09-2018, 02:07 PM
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 13, 2018


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The recent bearish movement of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800

The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the depicted downtrend line which comes to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels where evident bearish rejection should be anticipated.

As long as sings of bearish rejection are demonstrated below 1.3020 (50% Fibo level), the short-term outlook remains bearish towards 1.2840 and 1.2780.

On the other hand, successful bullish breakout above 1.3090 will probably hinder the current bearish movement allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.


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  #1049  
Old 14-09-2018, 01:46 PM
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US again "courting" China


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The unexpected offer of Americans to resume negotiations with China on trade duties on Wednesday evening led to a surge of optimism in the markets and a local weakening of the US dollar.

It seems that the US will not abandon the desire to "dent" China in the issue of the ratio of trade between countries. So far, they have not been able to do this, because the main problem of "exceptional", in our opinion, is their arrogance towards trading partners and the desire to use any methods to achieve their narrow-minded economic and political goals without taking them into account.

Earlier we have already mentioned that the trade balance not only, according to the latest data, has not shifted in favor of the Americans, but also fell, and the PRC's appeal to the WTO to punish the United States for their illegal actions could force the latter to resort to a new round of negotiations. Also, they may have realized that D. Trump's latest threats to expand the impact of new import tariffs by another 267 billion dollars did not have an effective impact on the leadership of "China", which was the reason for the desire to continue the negotiation process.

On this wave, the US and European stock indexes were supported by the results of trading on Wednesday, but already on Thursday the Chinese did not show such unambiguous optimism, which indicates that local investors are not confident in the success and perceive the proposals of the Americans as another trick and nothing more. We also believe that there will be no success in this process unless the United States engages in constructive and truly equitable negotiations.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that the weakening of the dollar against commodities and commodity currencies will be local, which means that after the weakening of the US currency and another disappointment in the negotiations, we can observe a turn in the interest of market players towards purchases.

On Thursday, from the important events of the day we will highlight the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. We do not expect any breakthrough statements and changes in the bank's policy. It is likely that it will continue with its plan and then smoothly reduce the program of quantitative easing until the end of this year, which is positive for the euro. But it is unlikely to expect its strong growth when paired with the US dollar, as the process of raising rates in the US will compensate for the pressure of the euro, so we believe that the overall sideways trend of the euro/dollar pair in the short term will continue.

The forecast for today:

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.1530-1.1650 in anticipation of the ECB meeting. Probably, the pair will remain in this range, turning down and rushing to its lower border.

The AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.7170. We do not expect a strong growth of the pair, as the RBA is unlikely to decide before the end of this year to raise rates on the wave of instability in the world. A price decrease below 0.7170 may be the reason for the price to fall to 0.7100.


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  #1050  
Old 18-09-2018, 01:42 PM
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The pound is waiting for a signal to attack

The meeting of the Bank of England was held without noise and dust, and sterling is preparing to release important statistics on inflation and retail sales, observing the development of the situation in the field of trade wars. According to the regulator, the consequences of the conflict between the US and China for the world economy may be slightly worse than initially expected. The concern of MPC is evoked by developments in emerging markets. The committee unanimously voted to maintain the repo rate at 0.75% and said that by the end of 2019 excess demand could lead to further tightening of monetary policy.

In general, the meeting was held in line with expectations, and the increase in estimates of GDP growth of the UK from 0.4% to 0.5% q/q in the third quarter provided little support to the sterling. Markets were expecting a more positive result amid the acceleration of the average wage to 2.9% y/y and the economy to 0.6% in May-July, however, the central bank cooled the offensive ardor of the bulls with the statement that these figures came in line with the forecast. According to the regulator, inflation is moving in the direction of 2%, which suggests the possibility of using the "let's sit and see" approach.

The pound continues to show increased sensitivity to politics. Rumors that Brussels and London failed to achieve progress on the Irish border, has pushed prices higher, but a statement by the Labour Party that the opposition would vote against Theresa May's plan returned the bulls from heaven to earth. The correlation between the headlines about Brexit and the volatility of the sterling reached a record 70%, which is conclusive evidence that the growth of the GBP/USD is hampered primarily by politics.

Dynamics of correlation between Brexit headlines and sterling volatility


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Unlike the volatility of the pound, the volatility of the euro fell to a 5-month low. The ECB's plans to phase out QE and hold rates until at least September 2019 make the monetary policy transparent. Given the fact that the timing of the continuation of the normalization of BoE may shift from the end of 2019 to a later or, conversely, an earlier period, investors have a great opportunity to win back macroeconomic statistics on Britain in the EUR/GBP pair. According to Nomura, the release of retail sales data for August (September 20) looks particularly attractive. A pleasant surprise will contribute to the decline of the euro in the direction of 0.85. It should be noted that the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts for the end of 2018 is 0.89.

As for the GBP/USD pair, much will depend on the development of the situation in the field of trade wars. Donald Trump threatens to impose additional tariffs of $200 billion on Chinese imports and invites to negotiations. The Chinese media claim that Beijing will not conduct a dialogue at gunpoint. The escalation of the conflict will increase the demand for reliable assets, including the US dollar.

Technically, if the bulls on the GBP/USD pair manage to hold the quotes above the support at 1.3035 and take the resistance by 1.313, the risks of implementing the target by 88.6% on the Shark pattern will increase.

GBP/USD, daily chart


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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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