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This is a discussion on Wave Analysis by InstaForex within the Singapore Jobs - Work From Home forums, part of the Singapore Jobs Market - Jobs in Singapore | Singapore Free Job Posting/Advertisement category; EUR/USD: the recalcitrant Italians drown the euro The narrative around the state budget of Italy for the next year ...


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  #1061  
Old 03-10-2018, 02:35 PM
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EUR/USD: the recalcitrant Italians drown the euro

The narrative around the state budget of Italy for the next year continues, putting strong pressure on the European currency. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.5 month lows, currently testing a strong resistance level of 1.1520, which is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the monthly chart. If the price is fixed under this level, the pair will soon enter the 14th figure, confirming the dominance of bears on the pair.

Despite the fact that the proposed draft Italian budget does not violate the EU requirements in terms of the permissible size of the deficit (not more than three percent), it caused an uproar in Brussels. The EU leadership has strong arguments for its discontent: if last year the Italian authorities laid the budget deficit at the level of 1.6%, now they want to raise this bar to 2.4% at the previously agreed 0.8%. And this is despite the fact that the size of Italy's public debt is one of the highest in the eurozone (here the Italians are second only to the Greeks), and the unemployment rate in some areas of the country reaches 30 percent. But these facts do not confuse politicians who recently came to power on the wave of populist promises. Now they have to fulfill (at least partially) their promises at the expense of "inflating" the budget.

It is worth noting that the political events in Italy are unfolding quite dynamically in the last five years the country was led by four prime ministers. None of them held office for more than two years. Representatives of the current coalition are well aware that time is playing against them, and if Brussels wins the "budget battle", their positions will weaken in many ways. That is why the Italian deputy prime minister said today that he will not back down "one iota" from those expenses that were planned in the scandalous draft budget. In particular, we are talking about an increase in pensions and social benefits. In addition, representatives of the "League" want to carry out next year's tax reform by changing the tax rate on personal income: 15% for households with incomes less than 80,000 per year and 20% for those whose income exceeds this level.



These intentions are opposed by Brussels and Italy's Minister of Finance practically the only influential "opposition" in the current government. In his opinion, the maximum allowable size of the budget deficit is 1.9%, but not the declared 2.4%. He also recalled that the Italian national debt exceeds 130% of GDP (2.3 trillion euros), and the actions of politicians offset the work on reducing the debt burden. It is noteworthy that to date Italy's budget indicators are consistent with the European Union, according to which the deficit was to be reduced from 1.6% of GDP this year to 0.8% in 2019, and in fact to zero in 2020. Now Rome shows the opposite trend - instead of the previously agreed 0.8%, it proposes to set the bar at 2.4% of GDP.

Such a sharp turn provoked a strong reaction from Brussels. According to the Italian press, if Rome implements the stated scenario, the European Commission will reject the draft budget and even consider the issue of applying sanctions against Italy. It is worth noting that we are talking about a fairly broad time frame: until October 20, members of the Italian government must approve the draft budget (in one form or another), before the end of November, this budget will be considered by the European Commission, and the sanctions procedure can be implemented at the beginning of next year. Therefore, if Rome decides on the declared budget deficit, the European currency will be under pressure for a long time.

In general, the EUR/USD pair reacted quite cautiously to the Italian event, until one of the ECB representatives commented on the situation. Thus, the head of the Bank of Finland Olly Ren said that the plans of the Italian government are alarming, and now the regulator is likely to "carefully monitor the risks." Obviously, if the Italian crisis worsens (especially if the European Commission returns Rome's unapproved draft budget), then at the next meeting of the ECB (October 25), the regulator will significantly soften its rhetoric, thereby putting additional pressure on the euro.

The current situation has its consequences, and not only in the context of the foreign exchange market. In particular, the Italian stock index FTSE MIB lost 3.7% amid a selling of Italian government bonds. If panic increases, this trend will continue.

However, in my opinion, the Italian crisis will end quite quickly when a certain peak is reached. Most likely, a compromise will be reached, assuming a reduction in the budget deficit under the two percent mark. On the one hand, Brussels will avoid a political crisis in Italy, and, on the other hand, Italian politicians will be able to partially fulfill their election promises, and the responsibility for the unfulfilled part will be transferred to the shoulders of the European Union, "which did not allow them to implement their plans." From a political point of view, this is a fairly convenient and "safe" position, so it will be surprising if Italian politicians show excessive principledness on this issue.


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From a technical point of view, the euro-dollar pair has reached an important support level of 1.1520 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the monthly chart). If bears push this mark, then the next support level will be the mark of 1.1440 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on W1).


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  #1062  
Old 04-10-2018, 01:20 PM
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Gold saved by speculators

If the assets that have been marching in different directions for a long time begin to move in the same direction, there is a reason for bewilderment and search for the causes of what is happening. It turns out you can find a good investment idea. Over the past few months, the main driver of the weakness of gold was the strong US dollar. Nevertheless, the political crisis in Italy increased the demand for safe-haven assets and contributed to selling the EUR/USD. At the same time, it played the principle of "when everyone sells, there is a great opportunity to buy." At the auction on October 2 at the beginning of the US session, the volume of operations within 10 minutes exceeded the average 100-day indicator by more than 12 times. While the crowd was selling the precious metal, sincerely hoping for a strong dollar, the big players, on the contrary, bought it. Bottoms up?

Dynamics of gold prices


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According to Commerzbank, gold will surely move upwards in the direction of $1,300 per ounce, since the external background is favorable for it. First, the increase in the scale of trade wars leads to an acceleration of inflation, which at the current rate of normalization of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will reduce the real yield of US Treasury bonds. This factor is bullish for the XAU/USD. Secondly, Brexit and the political crisis in Italy, along with trade wars, lead to a slowdown in business activity around the world. This slows down the growth rate of the world economy and delays the central banks' plans to normalize monetary policy. The profitability of the global bond market is falling, and gold is growing. Finally, thirdly, blazing Rome increases the demand for safe-haven assets.

The eurosceptic government persuaded Finance Minister Giuseppe Tria to adopt the draft budget for 2019 with a deficit of 2.4% of GDP. Their predecessors talked about 1.6% in 2018 and 0.8% in 2019. The current plan needs to be coordinated with the EU, which is already beginning to show discontent. So, Jean-Claude Juncker said that Brussels should do everything possible to avoid a new Greece. This time in Italy. Indeed, if the European Union accepts the figures proposed by Rome, the rest of the participating countries will begin to express dissatisfaction, which will strengthen the position of eurosceptics in the eurozone. On the other hand, it is necessary to find a common language with Italy, because from the side of the League and the Five Stars from time to time there is talk that the republic would be better without the euro.

Thus, the political crisis in Europe, trade wars and growing risks of falling real bond yields amid accelerating inflation and declining growth rates of business activity have contributed to the rise of gold towards the upper limit of the medium-term trading range of $1184-1214 per ounce. Speculators did not play the least role in this process. In my opinion, the external background is favorable for the precious metal, which increases the probability of breaking the upper limit of consolidation.

Technically, the output of gold outside the trading border will increase the risks of implementing the target by 88.6% using the "Bat"pattern.

Gold, daily chart


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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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  #1063  
Old 05-10-2018, 02:08 PM
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AUD/USD. The pair is approaching the stronghold of bulls - 0.7000

The Australian dollar paired with the US currency weakened to 2.5-year lows, entrenched in the 70th figure. This dynamics is associated not only with the strengthening of the greenback, although the rhythm of today's trading is set by the US dollar. "Hawkish" comments of the head of the Federal Reserve provoked an increase in the yield of 10-year treasuries, and this fact in turn influenced the dynamics of dollar pairs.

Despite the clear dominance of the US currency, in the context of the AUD/USD pair, it is worth considering that it will be difficult for traders to break through the base of the 70th figure and go lower. The last time such a maneuver was in January 2016 - but even then the bears of the AUD/USD could not keep the price within the 69th figure for more than one week. Therefore, short positions should be treated with extreme caution: the pair is too close to a strong support level.


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The long weekend in China (the country celebrates Independence Day throughout the week) shifted the focus of AUD/USD traders' attention to other fundamental factors. The theme of the US-China trade conflict has faded into the background, as the parties have so far "dispersed in the corners of the ring", also due to the national holiday in China. The Australian dollar did not get any benefit from this fact - on the contrary, now the pressure of the US currency has increased due to the tougher rhetoric of the Fed representatives.

And it's not just about Jerome Powell, who yesterday quite transparently hinted at the acceleration of the rate hike. In particular, speakers in recent days, Charles Evans, Eric Rosengren, Lael Brainard stated the need for further tightening of monetary policy ,and Brainard even allowed the possibility of accelerating the pace of the rate hike. Jerome Powell spoke about this, however, not directly, but in very clear hints. The meaning of its position is difficult to distort: apparently, the Fed will raise the interest rate three or four times next year and only in 2020 will it think about the level of the neutral rate.

The overall strengthening of the US dollar has not spared the AUD/USD pair. The yield spread between 10-year US and Australian bonds expanded to record levels in favor of the United States: the last time such dynamics was observed as much was 37 years ago. By and large, at one point connected many factors, the combination of which had a strong pressure on the Australian dollar.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is also not an "ally" of the Australian, as the devaluation of the national currency plays only into the hands of inflationary processes. The regulator has repeatedly stated this fact, each time voicing their concerns, if the AUD/USD exchange rate was approaching the region of the 80th figure. At their last meeting, which took place this week, the members of the RBA took a wait-and-see position, confirming the general expectations of the market about the prospects of monetary policy. According to the majority of traders, the issue of raising interest rates may not be considered until the second half of next year, and RBA members are in no hurry to dissuade the market from this.


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Thus, the Australian currency does not have its own strength to resist, so the "aussie" is entirely dependent on the dynamics of the US dollar. In turn, this means that the motion vector of the AUD/USD in the short term depends on the Nonfarms, the release of which is scheduled for tomorrow. If the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector exceeds the 200,000 mark, the unemployment rate will drop to 3.8%, and the dynamics of the average wage will remain within 0.3-0.4%, the US currency will continue its offensive in all dollar pairs (except for the pound-dollar pair, where the subject of Brexit dominates).

Technically, the AUD/USD pair also shows a clearly bearish picture, and on the "higher" timeframes (daily, weekly and monthly chart). On each of them the price is on the lower or between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator shows a strong bearish "Parade of lines" signal, and oscillators also signal the priority of the downward movement.

You can define several goals of the downward scenario, depending on the timeframe: D1 0,7070 (the goal is almost reached); W1 0,7055 and MN 0,7005. When passing the above values, the pair will target the main "price stronghold" the mark of 0.7000. Here it should be noted that the above support levels are not a reliable stronghold the main battle will unfold for a decrease in the 69th figure.


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Tomorrow's Nonfarms can impulsively reduce the price to the base of the 70th figure, but this price breakthrough should be treated with caution. In the area of multi-year lows, the pair can gradually buy back, and in the first trading days of the next week it can move away from record lows. Short positions in this case are appropriate only in the range of 0.7090-0.7010 or when the pair is fixed in the 69th figure. But to participate in the "battle" for a breakthrough in the 69th figure is very risky, since its outcome is not predetermined.


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  #1064  
Old 08-10-2018, 01:11 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 8, 2018


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There was no time for a correction and EUR/NZD is moving directly higher towards the next target at 1.8030. Support is now seen at 1.7800 and again at 1.7758, only a break below the later support will indicate a deeper correction towards 1.7643 unfolding, before the next advance towards the 1.8369 target.

R3: 1.8100
R2: 1.8030
R1: 1.7900
Pivot: 1.7800
S1: 1 7758
S2: 1.7692
S3: 1.7642

Trading recommendation:
We are long half a position from 1.7500 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7725.


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  #1065  
Old 09-10-2018, 12:49 PM
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The pound gets rid of the ballast

If you get rid of the ballast, it'll be a lot more fun. Over the past few months, the policy has restrained the offensive outbursts of the bulls on the GBP/USD. While most investors sleep and see the pound rise significantly higher, political risks prevent them from starting to form long positions. In past years, the Conservative Party conference invariably turned into a collapse of the sterling, and Theresa May's statement about the impasse in negotiations with Brussels leads its fans to sad arguments.

This time, nothing extraordinary happened at the Tory's meeting. The prime minister was not allowed to doubt the leadership. At the same time, rumors about the advancement of the Irish border issue led to a decrease in the EUR/GBP to the area of 3-month lows. Investors are playing on the contrast: while the fire of the political crisis in Italy is only heating up, in Britain, on the contrary, everything is moving towards the conclusion of an agreement. According to Reuters, London's new proposal to Brussels avoids large-scale checks on the border with Ireland, which signals progress in the negotiations.

Not the slightest role in strengthening the pound is played by the growth of the yield of British bonds to the area of 2-year highs. If the UK manages to achieve an orderly exit from the EU, the risks of continuing the Bank of England's monetary policy normalization cycle will increase. At the same time, the threat of an acceleration in inflation forces investors to flee from local debt obligations. If we add to this London's desire to take a step from fiscal consolidation to GDP acceleration and the potential growth of bond issuance associated with it, it becomes clear why the debt market rates are steadily moving upwards. Their increase raises the attractiveness of British assets, boosts demand for them and contributes to the revaluation of the sterling.

Dynamics of British bond yields


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At the same time, there are always two currencies in any pair, so the success of one of them does not necessarily lead to a shift in a certain direction. The dollar also looks very attractive at the moment. The futures market increased the likelihood of three acts of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve in 2019 from 40% to 42%, the duration of employment growth outside the agricultural sector does not get tired of rewriting records (96 consecutive months), and unemployment fell to a low of almost half a century. Against this background, the rise in the yield of US Treasury bonds to the peak in the spring of 2011 should not be surprising.

In the week to October 12, investors working with the GBP/USD will monitor the political situation in Britain, as well as the release of data on GDP of the UK for June-August and US inflation. In May-July, the economy of the United Kingdom accelerated to 0.6%, and if it continues in the same spirit, the pound will receive an additional trump card.

Technically, after a rollback to 50% of the AD wave of the "Bat" pattern, and the rebound from the lower limit of the upward trading channel, the "bulls" on the GBP/USD launched an attack in order to update the September high. If this happens, the chances of implementing the target by 161.8% on the AB=CD pattern will increase. GBP/USD daily chart


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  #1066  
Old 10-10-2018, 02:07 PM
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Brent found the culprits

If at the beginning of 2018 someone started talking about the fact that Brent will finish the year near the mark of $100 per barrel, they would surely laugh at him. Best case scenario. Nevertheless, over the past 12 months, the North Sea variety has added about 50% of its value, and the psychologically important mark no longer seems like an impossible dream. US economic sanctions against Iran, strong global demand, supply disruptions from Venezuela and other countries and the difficulties of US shale production pushed oil futures to the 4-year highs. And from them to $100 per barrel at hand.

If Donald Trump wants to find those responsible for the rapid rally of Brent and WTI, then he should look in the mirror. According to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, the US president's tweets bring confusion to the markets. Investors do not know how to act and what will happen in the future. In addition, Washington's actions against Tehran are too aggressive. Iranian exports before the announcement of sanctions since November were estimated at 2.5 million b/d. And if the market was initially set up with the fact that the sanctions would reduce it by 0.4-1 million b/d, then the current version of bringing the indicator to zero does not look great. At the end of the first week of October, the country exported 1.1 million b/d according to information received from tankers. The Tehran government says about 1 million b/d. In September, it was about 1.6 million b/d. Supplies are rapidly declining, but before the imposition of sanctions more time.

Only rumors about a more friendly attitude of the US to the buyers of Iranian oil allowed the "bears" on Brent and WTI to counterattack. The United States will not put pressure on India if Delhi does not completely refuse to import oil from Tehran. However, the information has not yet been confirmed, which allows investors to return to their favorite topic. When the $100 per barrel mark is reached. Players who did not have time to jump into the train leaving for the north are trying to make money on options. Since the beginning of September, the bets made with the help of futures contracts that the psychologically important level will be reached by January have doubled. BofA Merrill Lynch speaks openly about $100 per barrel and assesses the impact on the global economy. According to the bank's forecasts, global GDP growth will lose 0.2 pp from high oil prices, while the main victims will be the eurozone, Britain and Japan. Much will depend on the US dollar. Its weakness can be a catalyst for the rally of Brent and WTI.

Dynamics of US dollar and oil


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Support for black gold is provided by information about the approaching hurricane Michael to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and the forecast of experts Bloomberg to raise US stocks for the third week in a row.

Technically, the achievement of target levels at 161.8% according to the AB=CD pattern increases the risk of a rollback. At the same time, even the breakthrough of diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the ascending short-term trading channel will not allow the "bears" to breathe calmly on Brent. Until such time as the quotes are above $76.7 per barrel, the situation is controlled by the bulls.

Brent, daily chart


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  #1067  
Old 11-10-2018, 02:40 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 11, 2018


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The break above resistance at 1.7847 told us that the corrective decline from 1.7929 had completed prematurely and a new impulsive rally towards 1.8030 and 1.8369 should be unfolding.

Despite our expectation of a new impulsive rally towards 1.8030, we should be aware of the possibility of a more complex correction unfolding, but the minimum upside target should be 1.7929 if a larger flat correction is in the making.

R3: 1.8030
R2: 1.7960
R1: 1.7929
Pivot: 1.7882
S1: 1.7835
S2: 1.7800
S3: 1.7774

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7847 and we will place our stop at 1.7780. Upon a break above 1.7882 will will move our stop to break-even at 1.7847.



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  #1068  
Old 12-10-2018, 01:24 PM
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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on October 11. Speech by Mark Carney supported the pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD pair, you need:

Buyers managed to stay above the support level of 1.3184, which I mentioned in the morning review, and the comments of the Governor of the Bank of England allowed traders to increase their long positions. The main task for the second half of the day is to break through and consolidate above resistance 1.3220, which will lead to the formation of a new upward movement in the pound with a maximum of 1.3269, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the afternoon, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the support of 1.3147.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.3220 and the formation of a false breakdown on it will lead to a larger downward trend with repeated support test of 1.3184. A break of 1.3184 will allow us to expect an increase in short positions in the GBP / USD pair by updating the lows in the area of 1.3147 and 1.3098, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of the pound rising above the resistance of 1.3220 in the second half of the day, it is best to return in short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.3269.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The price is above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates continuous growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3236. The breakthrough of which will lead to a new wave of pound growth.


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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
MA (moving average) 30 days - green
MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
Bollinger Bands 20


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