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  #881  
Old 07-12-2017, 01:43 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 07, 2017


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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and 30-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Consumer Credit m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 113.02.
Resistance. 2: 113.80.
Resistance. 1: 112.58.
Support. 1: 112.30.
Support. 2: 112.08.
Support. 3: 111.86.


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  #882  
Old 11-12-2017, 12:30 PM
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Euro and pound will be determined with direction

Eurozone
The euro area economy continues to expand at a steady pace, GDP growth in Q3 was 0.6%, at an annual rate of 2.6%, preliminary data was revised upwards, which is consistent with the overall economic trend.


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Growth is primarily due to increased investment and exports. Despite the fact that household expenditures have decreased somewhat, the general level of optimism continues to improve, as indicated by the recent reports of ZEW and IFO.

On Wednesday, a report on industrial production will be released, on Thursday - PMI Markit index. This will be the latest data ahead of the ECB meeting, they will help to predict the overall tone of the commentary and the position of Mario Draghi at a subsequent press conference.

On Thursday, investors do not expect the ECB to decide to make any concrete steps, since there is no reason for this yet. However, forecasts for economic growth and inflation will be updated upwards, as indicated by both growing business activity in recent months and rising oil prices.

The euro as a reaction to the meeting of the FOMC may decline to a support level of 1.1670, growth is limited to the level of 1.1880.

United Kingdom

The pound on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England on December 14 is seent to be positive. According to Halifax, housing prices have stabilized after more than a year of decline and activity in the construction sector decreased. The inflation forecast published by the Bank of England rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, the trade deficit instead of expanding has unexpectedly remained virtually unchanged. Sufficiently, the industry appears much better, which was clearly facilitated by the protracted period of the weak pound, which supported the export industries.

The industrial sector is growing for the sixth month in a row, on an annualized basis, growth was 3.9%, which is higher than expected


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The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reports that, according to their calculations, UK GDP growth for the last 3 months was 0.5%, which exceeds both the indicators of the beginning of the year and 0.4% in the third quarter.

These factors increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will continue to gradually raise rates, and will also contribute to the growth of the pound. Although at the next meeting, the Bank of England will not raise the bid, the general trend is in favor of an increase, which is clearly a bullish factor for the pound.

On Friday, there was news that the UK and the EU agreed on three key points in the first phase of the Brexit talks. The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland was agreed upon, migration policies concerning the rights of EU citizens in the UK, and, most importantly, London's payment for the withdrawal from the EU. Thus, the first phase of negotiations is completed, and at the EU meeting on December 14, it will be possible to announce the progress achieved. This news will strengthen the positions of both the euro and pound.

The pound, nevertheless, will still be under pressure, since there are no serious internal drivers in the coming week. Presumably, a decline towards 1.3250 as an intermediate target and 1.2850 as a long-term goal.

Oil
China, which is the world's major oil consumer, supported the growing trend on Friday, posting significantly higher than expected trade balance data in November. Crude oil imports increased by 19.37% in November, demand remains firmly high, which, combined with a number of restrictive measures by OPEC + and significant financial losses of shale companies in the US, contribute to the formation of a stable demand against the backdrop of stable production in the context of the price war with OPEC. Together, these factors support oil, which allows us to predict a breakthrough of resistance at 63.50 for Brent in the short term.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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  #883  
Old 12-12-2017, 12:50 PM
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Pound fled from politics

A busy economic calendar and the departure of political risks into obscurity allows us to hope for the return of investors in actively trading the pound. Semiannual negotiations between London and Brussels, judging by the statements of the latter, were completed successfully, which makes it necessary to shift attention to macroeconomic data. In general, there is plenty of data at the beginning of the second week of the month for the UK. Inflation, the labor market, retail sales and the meeting of the Bank of England will satisfy even the highest demands of trade analysts on the news.

The fall of sterling in response to positive news from the negotiation table on Brexit has become a classic example of the implementation of the principle of "buy on the rumor, sell on the facts." Traders sold the GBP/USD quotes on the factor of harmonizing the conditions of the divorce between Britain and the EU, and the message that the round-the-clock work was over and the issue of the Irish border was resolved. This launched a wave of selling against the backdrop of profit taking. Moreover, popular media referring to competent sources reported that the trade deal before the spring of 2018 will not be achieved. However, the bridgehead is laid, and the bulls on sterling, including Nomura and ING, believe that the reduction of political risks of the UK will push the GBP/USD pair in the direction of 1.4 in 2018 and 1.36 in the near future.

On the contrary, "bears" criticize the agreement that was reached, blaming it for lack of details, and referred to the futures market, where the value of options to sell sterling is higher than the purchase. Derivatives are used for risk insurance, and the current dynamics of an indicator such as the risk of reversal (the ratio of premiums on call and put), indicates that investors still fear the sterling's collapse.

Dynamics of the ratio of premiums on options


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Source: Bloomberg.

On the other hand, speculators in the futures market held a net long position on the pound for 6 of the last 10 weeks, although before that they acted as net sellers for 98 five-day consecutive days.

Lately, there have been too many news with political coloring, and it's time for the sterling to turn its focus on the economy. In general, the outlook for upcoming releases is moderately positive. Bloomberg experts do not expect inflation to exceed the critical level of 3%, while the acceleration of average wages from 2.2% to 2.5% y/y. In addition to that, the exit from the negative territory of retail sales inspires optimism for bulls in the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, it is beneficial for the Bank of England to maintain a strong pound with the help of "hawkish" rhetoric, and the dollar cannot take advantage of strong data on the US.

It is possible that the growth of the fiscal deficit as a result of the implementation of the tax reform, the reluctance of Donald Trump to see the US currency strong and the recovery of the economies of the competing countries will force the USD index to restore the downward trend in 2018.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair is preparing to retest the upper bound of the previous consolidation range at 1.304-1.332. Assuming that it, like the previous one, ends with the defeat of the "bears", the likelihood of a restoration of the uptrend in the sterling will then increase.

GBP/USD, daily chart


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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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  #884  
Old 13-12-2017, 01:40 PM
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BTC/USD reacting off our selling entry perfectly, remain bearish


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Bitcoin has reached our selling area and is reacting off it nicely. We remain bearish looking to sell below 17459 resistance (Fibonacci extension, bearish price action, bearish divergence) for a drop towards at least 14739 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 98% and also displays bearish divergence vs price, signaling that a reversal is impending.

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

Bitcoin January futures (which are contracts that let investors buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) price are about $17,800 which is rather close to where we forecast major resistance. This is in line with the immediate resistance we're seeing on the technical side so it would be safe to start looking to short Bitcoin for a correction.

Sell below 17459. Stop loss is at 18770. Take profit is at 14739.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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  #885  
Old 14-12-2017, 12:27 PM
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British income levels drop

The British pound did not pay attention to data on pay cuts in the UK from August to October of this year, and this could negatively affect retail as well as GDP growth.

Let me remind you that the fall in real incomes of citizens started last year, when the UK decided on a vote to leave the EU. According to the report, from August to October 2017 compared with the same period of last year, real wages fell by 0.4%. The unemployment rate in the UK for the same period remained unchanged at 4.3%. Economists expected a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points.


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As for the pound's immediate prospects, much of it will depend on the decision of the Bank of England on Thursday. Although it is projected that the regulator will leave interest rates unchanged. It will be important to know how the members of the Committee on Monetary Policy will vote for constant interest rates and quantitative easing.

If the Bank of England mentions good progress in Brexit talks during the comments, it will also benefit the British pound, which can significantly strengthen its positions against the US dollar.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, further growth is directly dependent on the breakthrough of a large resistance located in the area of 1.3375. Levels that are above 1.3425 and 1.3480 are considered good. In the event of a channel breakout in the lower limit of 1.3300, one can expect an increase in pressure on the pound with a decline towards 1.3225 and 1.3150.

Inflation data in Germany slightly affected the quotations of the European currency during the first half of Wednesday, as it coincided with the forecasts of economists.

According to a report of the statistics agency, the final consumer price index of Germany in November this year increased by 0.3% compared with October. Economists also expected the index to increase by 0.3%. As for the same period for 2016, prices have increased by 1.8% overall.

As for the important events in the afternoon, attention should be focused on the Fed hiking the interest rate, as well as a signal about what will be the acceleration of the normalization of monetary policy next year.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bulls managed to win back Tuesday's euro decline in the afternoon and returned to the intermediate level of support 1.1740 without much difficulty. While the trade is going above this range, we can count on a further upward trend for the euro with an update of 1.1775 and an exit to weekly highs around 1.1810.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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  #886  
Old 15-12-2017, 12:31 PM
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ECB leaves rates and economic forecast unchanged

The euro met with minimal hesitation at the key decision of the European Central Bank this week.

According to the data, the European Central Bank left the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%, while stating that interest rates will remain at current levels for a long time after the end of the asset purchase program.

Many experts expected that the ECB would make hints on the gradual tightening of monetary policy by the time of the completion of the curtailment of the asset repurchase program, which is scheduled for the end of next year. However, as we can see, this is not included in the plans of the ECB and there are a number of objective reasons for this. At the very least, this is the missing price pressure, which is kept quite low for quite a long time even after good economic growth in the second and third quarters of this year. The labor market in the euro area also shows growth but the rate of increase in wages is far from ideal.


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The ECB also revealed that they will reinvest funds received from the redemption of bonds for a long period after the completion of the curtailment of the asset purchase program.

In the morning, preliminary data on the PMI supply managers' index for France's manufacturing sector for December came out. It rose significantly to 59.3 points versus 57.7 points in November. Economists had expected PMI for the manufacturing sector to be at 57.1 points.

A similar preliminary index of supply managers PMI for Germany's manufacturing sector for the month of December this year rose to 63.3 points against 62.5 points in November. Economists expected the index to fall to 62.1 points.

As for the euro area as a whole, the preliminary composite index of supply managers for the euro zone's PMI in December this year increased to 58.0 points with a forecast at 57.3 points, which is slightly lower than the November figure of 57.5 points. In the second half of the day, data on the US labor market came out.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week declined. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of December 3 to 9 decreased by 11,000 and amounted to 225,000. Economists predicted that the number of applications would be at 235,000.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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