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  #901  
Old 12-01-2018, 01:50 PM
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Protocols of the ECB helped the euro


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The euro did not receive serious support from investors after the release of good data on industrial production in the euro area. However, the publication of the minutes from the December meeting of the European Central Bank forced traders to change their view of risky assets.

In the first half of the day, it became known that Germany's economy in 2017 grew at a slower pace than expected. According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, Germany's gross domestic product grew by 2.2% last year. Despite this, economists expected a more serious growth rate in the region of 2.3%. The surplus of the country's budget in 2017 amounted to 1.2% of GDP.

Given the economic indicators demonstrated by Germany in 2017, it is not surprising that this country is the basis of the eurozone and the European Union as a whole. However, given the difficulties now faced by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her post, it can be assumed that it is political problems that indirectly affect the main financial indicators in early 2018.

As I noted above, the industrial production of the eurozone completes the year with an excellent upward trend. According to the report of the EU statistical agency Eurostat, industrial production in November 2017 increased by 1.0% compared to the previous month and by 3.2% compared to the same period of the previous year. Economists predicted that growth will be at 0.6% compared to the previous month and 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The publication of the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank provided substantial support to the euro, as many investors found in them a hint of a possible curtailment of the asset repurchase program by the Central Bank this fall.

The minutes indicate that the ECB can change its attitude to the credit policy in case the state of the economy continues to improve in 2018. The leaders also agreed that the policy should change gradually so as not to affect the recovery of the euro area economy.

Weak data on the US labor market exerted even more pressure on the US dollar. According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of December 31 to January 6 increased by 11,000 and amounted to 261,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 245,000.


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  #902  
Old 15-01-2018, 01:53 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2018


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Wave summary:
The corrective rally from 133.09 spikes just above our upper target at 135.25 and should now be ready to turn lower again for a decline towards 131.11 before another corrective rally is expected towards 134.10.

Short-term a break below minor support at 134.79 will be a strong indicator that the corrective rally from 133.09 has completed and the expected decline to 131.11 has begun.

R3: 136.64
R2: 136.05
R1: 135.66
Pivot: 134.79
S1: 134.25
S2: 133.65
S3: 133.09

Trading recommendation:
We sold EUR at 134.74. We will place our stop at 136.75, but expect to move it lower soon. Upon a break below 134.79, we will move the stop lower to 135.75.


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  #903  
Old 16-01-2018, 12:58 PM
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 16, 2018


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Wave summary:
We continue to regard the rally from 133.01 as corrective and is looking for a break below minor support at 135.36 and more importantly a break below support at 135.00 as confirmation that this correction has completed and a new decline 131.11 is developing.

At no point should a break above 136.64 be seen under this count.
R3: 137.37
R2: 136.64
R1: 136.32
Pivot: 135.36
S1: 135.00
S2: 134.80
S3: 134.35

Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 134.75 with our stop placed at 136.75. Upon a break below 135.00 we will lower our stop to 136.15.


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Old Yesterday, 01:14 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 17, 2018


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In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.97.
Resistance. 2: 110.76.
Resistance. 1: 110.54.
Support. 1: 110.27.
Support. 2: 110.06.
Support. 3: 109.84.


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  #905  
Old Today, 01:32 PM
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Four drivers of gold growth

Precious metals became the main beneficiary of the weakness of the US dollar. The impressive growth of the world economy allowed palladium to hit record highs near $1,140 per ounce. From the beginning of the year, platinum added almost 8% and is one of the leaders of the commodity market. Gold managed to break through to the September peaks, and it appears that the bulls are determined to continue the rally. However, the EUR/USD movement stalled near the 1.23 mark against the backdrop of the ECB's "dovish" rhetoric, so it's too early to talk about the final defeat of the dollar.

Dynamics of precious metals and gold


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Source: Financial Times.

The fact that the "greenback" is not at ease and does not react to the growing likelihood of the US GDP being dispersed under the influence of tax reform, or to strong macroeconomic data for the United States, is of paramount importance for the XAU/USD. However, it would be wrong to only talk about a single driver of growth.

The rapid rally in Brent and WTI increases the risks of accelerating consumer prices in the US and other countries. At the same time, central banks, including the Fed, prefer a slow normalization of monetary policy. These circumstances pose serious obstacles to the real yield of treasury bonds, which is a "bullish" factor for gold.

Let's not forget about political and geopolitical risks. On January 19, the US government could be temporarily shut down. More than four years ago, this resulted in a serious slowdown in the US GDP. Yes, the Republicans prepared a draft of its interim financing until February 16, but it looks raw and leads to an emergence of new enemies, which creates problems in the Senate voting. In Germany, negotiations between the bloc of Angela Merkel and the Social Democrats are unlikely to be as easy as initially intended. The Berlin wing of the SPD protested against the coalition, and until the party's congress on January 21-22, uncertainty will loom in the markets. Once again, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reiterated the threat of North Korea and urged China and Russia to implement sanctions more actively.

Thus, a weak dollar, growing risks of accelerating inflation and a fall in the real yield of US Treasury bonds, political uncertainty in the United States and Germany, as well as the possibility of an escalation of the conflict over North Korea lay a powerful foundation for the continuation of the XAU/USD rally. Positions of "bears" look hopeless, however history shows that the trends often unfolded at a time when the crowd firmly believed in their continuation.

In my opinion, the "bulls" for EUR/USD brought the pair too far. Its long-term prospects appears positive, but it is not yet time to win back the factor of normalization of the monetary policy of the ECB, and the presence of political risks in Germany and Italy raises doubts about the validity of current levels. If the euro goes into a correction, the growth of the USD index will help lower the price of gold.

Technically, reaching a target of 88.6% for the "Shark" pattern enhances the risks of pullback in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave. Gold, daily chart


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